Marlins at Dodgers
Last play · Dodgers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Freddie Freeman grounds into an unassisted double play, second baseman Xavier Edwards. Shohei Ohtani out at 1st. Freddie Freeman out at 1st.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
MIA 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 1 LAD
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+214 / -267
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Javier Sanoja singles on a pop up to second baseman Alex Freeland. Xavier Edwards scores. (inning 8) — -26% Marlins
8Javier Sanoja singles on a pop up to second baseman Alex Freeland. Xavier Edwards scores.3–2
6Dalton Rushing singles on a line drive to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Kyle Tucker scores.2–2
5Esteury Ruiz homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
2Alex Call singles on a pop up to second baseman Xavier Edwards. Max Muncy scores.1–1
2Liam Hicks homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
