Braves at Dodgers
Last play · Ozzie Albies pops out to first baseman Freddie Freeman in foul territory.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
ATL 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 2 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddie Freeman homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 6) — +21% Dodgers
6Freddie Freeman homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
5Shohei Ohtani singles on a ground ball to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Miguel Rojas scores.1–2
2Kyle Tucker doubles (9) on a line drive to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Teoscar Hernández scores.1–1
2Austin Riley singles on a ground ball to center fielder Andy Pages. Michael Harris II scores. Dominic Smith to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
