Marlins at Dodgers
Last play · Alex Freeland grounds out, first baseman Graham Pauley to pitcher Tyler Phillips.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
MIA 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 0 LAD
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+214 / -267
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Owen Caissie out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Andy Pages. Agustín Ramírez scores. (inning 2) — -15% Marlins
8Will Smith singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Dalton Rushing scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.2–1
5Kyle Stowers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Christopher Morel scores.2–0
2Owen Caissie out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Andy Pages. Agustín Ramírez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
