Braves at Dodgers
Last play · Alex Freeland flies out to left fielder Mauricio Dubón.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
ATL 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 4 – 0 LAD
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón doubles (10) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Alex Call. Michael Harris II scores. Sean Murphy scores. Jorge Mateo scores. (inning 2) — -25% Braves
9Jorge Mateo singles on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Dominic Smith to 2nd.7–2
9Matt Olson homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.6–2
8Max Muncy homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Kyle Tucker scores.5–2
8Drake Baldwin homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.5–0
2Mauricio Dubón doubles (10) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Alex Call. Michael Harris II scores. Sean Murphy scores. Jorge Mateo scores.4–0
2Eli White singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Austin Riley scores. Michael Harris II to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
