Giants at Dodgers
Last play · Shohei Ohtani grounds out, second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Casey Schmitt.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
SF 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 2 LAD
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+202 / -251
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eric Haase homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — -16% Giants
7Jung Hoo Lee doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Willy Adames scores. Drew Gilbert scores.6–2
7Drew Gilbert singles on a soft bunt ground ball to catcher Will Smith, deflected by first baseman Freddie Freeman. Heliot Ramos scores. Willy Adames to 2nd.4–2
5Eric Haase homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
5Harrison Bader homers (2) on a line drive to left field.2–2
3Shohei Ohtani homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
3Eric Haase homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Will Smith out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Shohei Ohtani scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
