Phillies at Dodgers
Last play · Alec Bohm flies out to right fielder Kyle Tucker.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
PHI 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 4 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Muncy homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 2) — +10% Dodgers
8Steward Berroa singles on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Brandon Marsh scores.2–4
6Kyle Schwarber homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
5Will Smith homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.0–4
3Shohei Ohtani homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
2Max Muncy homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
1Freddie Freeman homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
