Phillies at Dodgers
Last play · Andy Pages grounds out, shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
PHI 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 2 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+199 / -246
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Edmundo Sosa homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryce Harper scores. (inning 8) — -52% Phillies
8Edmundo Sosa homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryce Harper scores.4–3
8Bryce Harper singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Justin Crawford scores.2–3
7Phillies challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Mookie Betts singles on a line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Andy Pages scores.1–3
4Santiago Espinal out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Justin Crawford. Alex Call scores.1–2
2Alex Call singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Will Smith scores. Miguel Rojas to 2nd.1–1
2Alec Bohm homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
