Phillies at Dodgers
Last play · Kyle Schwarber grounds out, second baseman Alex Freeland to first baseman Santiago Espinal.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
PHI 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 6 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+199 / -246
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Tucker singles on a ground ball to right fielder Adolis García. Freddie Freeman scores. (inning 3) — +12% Dodgers
9Bryson Stott homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.1–9
8Freddie Freeman out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Alex Freeland scores.0–9
7Max Muncy homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.0–8
6Freddie Freeman out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Adolis García. Andy Pages scores.0–7
5Alex Call singles on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Mookie Betts scores. Kyle Tucker scores.0–6
4Alex Freeland homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.0–4
4Ryan Ward homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
3Kyle Tucker singles on a ground ball to right fielder Adolis García. Freddie Freeman scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
