Rays at Dodgers
Last play · Cedric Mullins strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
TB 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 3 LAD
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddie Freeman homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. Andy Pages scores. (inning 6) — +34% Dodgers
6Freddie Freeman homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. Andy Pages scores.4–5
5Kyle Tucker walks. Freddie Freeman scores. Mookie Betts to 3rd. Miguel Rojas to 2nd.4–3
5Richie Palacios singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Jonathan Aranda scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.4–2
5Junior Caminero grounds into a force out, third baseman Tommy Edman to second baseman Alex Freeland. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd. Cedric Mullins out at 2nd. Junior Caminero to 1st.3–2
5Yandy Díaz singles on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Hunter Feduccia scores.2–2
5Taylor Walls out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Hunter Feduccia to 3rd.1–2
4Alex Freeland singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Alex Call scores. Dalton Rushing to 2nd.0–2
4Alex Call singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Mookie Betts scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
