Rays at Dodgers
Last play · Yandy Díaz grounds out, second baseman Miguel Rojas to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
TB 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 3 LAD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Tucker homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Mookie Betts scores. Max Muncy scores. (inning 2) — +35% Dodgers
7Miguel Rojas homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
2Kyle Tucker homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Mookie Betts scores. Max Muncy scores.3–3
2Taylor Walls out on a sacrifice bunt, first baseman Freddie Freeman to second baseman Alex Freeland. Austin Slater scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd.3–0
1Ryan Vilade homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Junior Caminero scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
