Padres at Dodgers
Last play · Ty France grounds out sharply, shortstop Mookie Betts to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
SD 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 6 – 10 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+220 / -274
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andy Pages doubles (21) on a ground ball to left fielder Samad Taylor. Dalton Rushing scores. Tommy Edman scores. (inning 4) — +27% Dodgers
9Miguel Andujar singles on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Samad Taylor scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.7–12
8Dalton Rushing singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Kyle Tucker scores. Teoscar Hernández to 3rd.6–12
6Dalton Rushing out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Kyle Tucker scores.6–11
5Andy Pages walks.6–10
5Tommy Edman doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Dalton Rushing scores.6–9
4Max Muncy singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Mookie Betts scores.6–8
4Mookie Betts doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Andy Pages scores.6–7
4Andy Pages doubles (21) on a ground ball to left fielder Samad Taylor. Dalton Rushing scores. Tommy Edman scores.6–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
