Orioles at Dodgers
Last play · Alex Freeland strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
BAL 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 6 – 1 LAD
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+194 / -240
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samuel Basallo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Taylor Ward scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd. Pete Alonso to 2nd. (inning 1) — -12% Orioles
8Blaze Alexander homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Leody Taveras scores.12–1
7Pete Alonso homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Gunnar Henderson scores.10–1
7Jeremiah Jackson doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Blaze Alexander scores.7–1
4Colton Cowser singles on a ground ball to center fielder Andy Pages. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso scores. Coby Mayo to 2nd.6–1
3Colton Cowser homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.4–1
2Taylor Ward homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
1Max Muncy singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Shohei Ohtani scores. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.2–1
1Colton Cowser singles on a fly ball to left fielder Ryan Ward. Gunnar Henderson scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd. Samuel Basallo to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
