Padres at Dodgers
Last play · Dalton Rushing flies out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
SD 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 0 LAD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+184 / -226
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Luis Campusano scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. (inning 7) — -16% Padres
7Shohei Ohtani singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Kyle Tucker scores. Alex Freeland to 3rd.5–2
7Alex Freeland singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Teoscar Hernández scores. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.5–1
7Manny Machado homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Luis Campusano scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.5–0
7Dodgers challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Miguel Rojas. Sung-Mun Song scores. Luis Campusano to 2nd.2–0
4Jackson Merrill singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Alex Call. Manny Machado scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
