Rockies at Dodgers
Last play · Freddie Freeman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
COL 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 2 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+217 / -271
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake McCarthy out on a sacrifice bunt, third baseman Max Muncy to second baseman Alex Freeland. Cole Carrigg scores. Tyler Freeman scores. Throwing error by second baseman Alex Freeland. (inning 8) — -52% Rockies
8Jake McCarthy out on a sacrifice bunt, third baseman Max Muncy to second baseman Alex Freeland. Cole Carrigg scores. Tyler Freeman scores. Throwing error by second baseman Alex Freeland.4–3
8Tyler Freeman reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Miguel Rojas. Kyle Karros scores. Cole Carrigg to 3rd. Fielding error by shortstop Miguel Rojas.2–3
6Alex Freeland singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Tommy Edman scores.1–3
6Jake McCarthy grounds out, shortstop Miguel Rojas to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Cole Carrigg scores. Tyler Freeman to 2nd.1–2
5Andy Pages walks. Alex Freeland scores. Miguel Rojas to 3rd. Shohei Ohtani to 2nd.0–2
1Shohei Ohtani homers (20) on a line drive to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
