D-backs at Dodgers
Last play · Dalton Rushing grounds out, second baseman Ildemaro Vargas to first baseman Tim Tawa.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
AZ 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 6 – 2 LAD
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+255 / -322
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tim Tawa homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Nolan Arenado scores. (inning 4) — -26% D-backs
9Miguel Rojas doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Tommy Edman scores.9–3
8Tim Tawa singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Jorge Barrosa scores.9–2
6Geraldo Perdomo grounds out to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Jorge Barrosa scores. Tim Tawa to 3rd.8–2
6Tim Tawa singles on a ground ball to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Nolan Arenado scores. Jorge Barrosa to 3rd.7–2
5Lourdes Gurriel Jr. strikes out swinging.6–2
5Gabriel Moreno grounds out, third baseman Tommy Edman to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Corbin Carroll to 2nd.5–2
4Tim Tawa homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Nolan Arenado scores.4–2
1Andy Pages homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
