D-backs at Dodgers
Last play · Kyle Tucker flies out to left fielder Max Kepler.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
AZ 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 0 LAD
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+194 / -239
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Kepler out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Andy Pages. Geraldo Perdomo scores. (inning 6) — -14% D-backs
8James McCann homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.9–2
8Nolan Arenado homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.8–2
7Max Kepler out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd.7–2
6Mookie Betts singles on a ground ball to left fielder Max Kepler. Andy Pages scores. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.6–2
6Andy Pages singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Max Kepler. Tommy Edman scores.6–1
6James McCann homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Tim Tawa scores. Nolan Arenado scores.6–0
6Tim Tawa doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Gabriel Moreno scores.3–0
6Max Kepler out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Andy Pages. Geraldo Perdomo scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
