D-backs at Dodgers
Last play · Teoscar Hernández strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
AZ 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 3 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+194 / -239
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. reaches on a fielder's choice. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman Max Muncy. (inning 6) — -17% D-backs
9Tim Tawa homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.5–3
6Ildemaro Vargas singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Gabriel Moreno scores. Ildemaro Vargas out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Kyle Tucker to shortstop Mookie Betts to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to 3rd.4–3
6Lourdes Gurriel Jr. reaches on a fielder's choice. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman Max Muncy.3–3
5Ryan Waldschmidt out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Nolan Arenado scores. Tim Tawa to 3rd.2–3
5Nolan Arenado doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Ildemaro Vargas scores.1–3
3Tommy Edman singles on a fly ball to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Shohei Ohtani scores. Andy Pages scores. Tommy Edman to 2nd.0–3
1Shohei Ohtani homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
