Mariners at Dodgers
Last play · Luke Raley lines out to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
SEA 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 3 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddie Freeman singles on a ground ball to third baseman Weston Wilson. Shohei Ohtani scores. Andy Pages to 2nd. (inning 3) — +12% Dodgers
9Josh Naylor doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Dominic Canzone scores.2–4
8Cole Young singles on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Weston Wilson scores.1–4
6Shohei Ohtani doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Dalton Rushing scores.0–4
4Andy Pages singles on a ground ball to shortstop Colt Emerson, deflected by third baseman Weston Wilson. Mookie Betts scores. Teoscar Hernández to 3rd. Shohei Ohtani to 2nd.0–3
3Freddie Freeman singles on a ground ball to third baseman Weston Wilson. Shohei Ohtani scores. Andy Pages to 2nd.0–2
1Andy Pages homers (18) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
