Mariners at Dodgers
Last play · Mookie Betts grounds out, shortstop J.P. Crawford to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
SEA 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 4 – 5 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dominic Canzone homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 8) — -39% Mariners
9Shohei Ohtani doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Dalton Rushing scores. Shohei Ohtani to 3rd. Shohei Ohtani advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by right fielder Victor Robles.7–6
8Dominic Canzone homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Julio Rodríguez scores.7–5
6Dominic Canzone homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.5–5
5Max Muncy homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.4–5
4Shohei Ohtani singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Tommy Edman scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd. Dalton Rushing to 2nd.4–4
4Tommy Edman doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Mookie Betts scores.4–3
4Rob Refsnyder homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Josh Naylor scores.4–2
4Julio Rodríguez homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
