Red Sox at Dodgers
Last play · Andy Pages strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
BOS 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 5 – 3 LAD
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andy Pages singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Teoscar Hernández scores. Max Muncy scores. Shohei Ohtani to 3rd. (inning 2) — +25% Dodgers
8Anthony Seigler flies out to left fielder Teoscar Hernández.8–4
7Andy Pages doubles (23) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Max Muncy scores.6–4
6Jarren Duran homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.6–3
3Masataka Yoshida homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.5–3
3Wilyer Abreu homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.4–3
3Ceddanne Rafaela homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
2Andy Pages singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Teoscar Hernández scores. Max Muncy scores. Shohei Ohtani to 3rd.2–3
2Eliezer Alfonzo grounds out, shortstop Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Willson Contreras. Kyle Tucker scores. Teoscar Hernández to 3rd. Max Muncy to 2nd.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
