Royals at Dodgers
Last play · Kyle Isbel grounds out sharply to first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
KC 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 3 – 2 LAD
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+250 / -272
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Muncy doubles (17) on a line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Tommy Edman scores. Miguel Rojas scores. Kyle Tucker scores. Max Muncy to 3rd. (inning 6) — +46% Dodgers
7Freddie Freeman singles on a ground ball to right fielder Starling Marte. Shohei Ohtani scores. Freddie Freeman out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Starling Marte to catcher Salvador Perez to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.5–6
7Kyle Isbel homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Massey scores.5–5
6Max Muncy doubles (17) on a line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Tommy Edman scores. Miguel Rojas scores. Kyle Tucker scores. Max Muncy to 3rd.3–5
3Freddie Freeman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Shohei Ohtani scores. Freddie Freeman to 2nd.3–2
3Shohei Ohtani doubles (23) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Hunter Feduccia scores.3–1
3Jac Caglianone homers (21) on a line drive to right center field. Nick Loftin scores.3–0
1Jac Caglianone singles on a ground ball to center fielder Andy Pages. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
