Brewers at Dodgers
Last play · Alex Call called out on strikes.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
MIL 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 4 – 1 LAD
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Ortiz homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. William Contreras scores. (inning 2) — -24% Brewers
4William Contreras homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake Bauers scores.4–1
3Shohei Ohtani triples (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Bauers. Alex Call scores.2–1
2Joey Ortiz homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. William Contreras scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
