Brewers at Dodgers
Last play · Mookie Betts grounds out sharply, shortstop Joey Ortiz to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
MIL 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 1 LAD
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+169 / -182
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Muncy homers (24) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 4) — +16% Dodgers
9Andy Pages homers (21) on a fly ball to left field.6–2
9David Hamilton reaches on a fielder's choice. Luis Lara scores. Jackson Chourio scores. Jake Bauers to 3rd. David Hamilton to 2nd. Fielding error by second baseman Tommy Edman.6–1
7Andrew Vaughn singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Jake Bauers scores.4–1
7Jake Bauers doubles (18) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Jackson Chourio scores.3–1
5Jake Bauers singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Jackson Chourio scores.2–1
4Max Muncy homers (24) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
2Luis Lara reaches on a fielder's choice. Brandon Lockridge scores. Jonathan Ornelas to 3rd. William Contreras to 2nd. Missed catch error by second baseman Tommy Edman, assist to shortstop Mookie Betts.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
