Pirates at Dodgers
Last play · Nick Yorke pops out to second baseman Tommy Edman.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
PIT 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 4 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+234 / -254
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Tucker singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Mookie Betts scores. Max Muncy scores. (inning 5) — +30% Dodgers
5Kyle Tucker singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Mookie Betts scores. Max Muncy scores.3–4
4Alek Thomas singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Kyle Tucker scores. Teoscar Hernández to 2nd.3–2
4Teoscar Hernández singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Max Muncy scores. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.3–1
1Rafael Flores Jr. grounds out, pitcher Tarik Skubal to second baseman Tommy Edman to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Oneil Cruz scores.3–0
1Oneil Cruz triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Esmerlyn Valdez scores. Bryan Reynolds scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
