Pirates at Dodgers
Last play · Spencer Horwitz flies out to left fielder Teoscar Hernández.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
PIT 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 4 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+253 / -275
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alek Thomas singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Tommy Edman scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd. (inning 4) — +9% Dodgers
5Max Muncy grounds out, pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Freddie Freeman scores. Mookie Betts to 2nd.0–4
4Hunter Feduccia singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Kyle Tucker scores. Alek Thomas to 3rd.0–3
4Alek Thomas singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Tommy Edman scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd.0–2
1Mookie Betts grounds into a double play, shortstop Jared Triolo to second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Shohei Ohtani scores. Freddie Freeman out at 2nd. Mookie Betts out at 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
