Reds at Marlins
Last play · Elly De La Cruz strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins100%
CIN 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Owen Caissie doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder TJ Friedl. Liam Hicks scores. Otto Lopez scores. (inning 4) — +17% Marlins
8Agustín Ramírez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Graham Pauley scores. Jakob Marsee scores.1–8
7Owen Caissie singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Agustín Ramírez scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd. Otto Lopez to 2nd.1–6
6Javier Sanoja singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Owen Caissie scores.1–5
5Sal Stewart homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
4Javier Sanoja singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Owen Caissie scores.0–4
4Owen Caissie doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder TJ Friedl. Liam Hicks scores. Otto Lopez scores.0–3
1Agustín Ramírez reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Eugenio Suárez. Xavier Edwards scores. Fielding error by third baseman Eugenio Suárez.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
