Brewers at Marlins
Last play · Otto Lopez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins0%
MIL 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 1 MIA
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Agustín Ramírez doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Greg Jones. Xavier Edwards scores. (inning 8) — +32% Marlins
10Liam Hicks doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick.7–5
10Garrett Mitchell doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Joey Ortiz scores. Jake Bauers scores. Luis Rengifo to 3rd.7–4
10Luis Rengifo reaches on a fielder's choice. Brice Turang scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd. Jake Bauers to 2nd. Missed catch error by catcher Agustín Ramírez, assist to second baseman Xavier Edwards.5–4
8Agustín Ramírez doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Greg Jones. Xavier Edwards scores.4–4
6Otto Lopez homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Xavier Edwards scores.4–3
6Luis Rengifo doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Jake Bauers scores.4–1
4Owen Caissie out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Otto Lopez scores.3–1
4David Hamilton bunt grounds out, pitcher Janson Junk to first baseman Connor Norby.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
