Brewers at Marlins
Last play · Javier Sanoja grounds out, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Marlins0%
MIL 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 1 MIA
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brice Turang homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. William Contreras scores. (inning 5) — -28% Brewers
9Heriberto Hernández grounds into a force out, third baseman Luis Rengifo to second baseman Brice Turang. Otto Lopez scores. Connor Norby to 3rd. Owen Caissie out at 2nd. Heriberto Hernández to 1st.5–2
6Brice Turang singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Joey Ortiz scores. Sal Frelick to 2nd.5–1
6Brewers challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Sal Frelick reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Xavier Edwards. Garrett Mitchell scores. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.4–1
5Brice Turang homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. William Contreras scores.3–1
4Brandon Lockridge singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Luis Rengifo scores.1–1
2Connor Norby singles on a ground ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Liam Hicks scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
