Brewers at Marlins
Last play · Blake Perkins grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Connor Norby.
Win probability
Marlins100%
MIL 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 3 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gary Sánchez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Sal Frelick scores. Garrett Mitchell scores. Brice Turang to 3rd. (inning 8) — -11% Brewers
8Gary Sánchez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Sal Frelick scores. Garrett Mitchell scores. Brice Turang to 3rd.3–5
6Javier Sanoja singles on a line drive to center fielder Brandon Lockridge. Liam Hicks scores. Owen Caissie scores. Javier Sanoja to 2nd.1–5
6Garrett Mitchell grounds out to first baseman Connor Norby. David Hamilton scores.1–3
1Liam Hicks singles on a line drive to left fielder Greg Jones. Otto Lopez scores.0–3
1Agustín Ramírez grounds into a double play, second baseman Brice Turang to shortstop David Hamilton to first baseman Jake Bauers. Xavier Edwards scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. Kyle Stowers out at 2nd. Agustín Ramírez out at 1st.0–2
1Marlins challenged (hit by pitch), call on the field was overturned: Kyle Stowers hit by pitch.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
