Cardinals at Marlins
Last play · José Fermín called out on strikes.
Win probability
Marlins100%
STL 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Agustín Ramírez homers (2) on a line drive to center field. (inning 5) — +22% Marlins
9Ramón Urías out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Masyn Winn scores.3–5
8Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Jordan Walker to third baseman Ramón Urías. Liam Hicks to 2nd.2–5
6Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Scott II. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards out at home on the throw, center fielder Victor Scott II to shortstop Masyn Winn to catcher Iván Herrera. Liam Hicks to 2nd.2–4
6Otto Lopez doubles (5) on a ground ball to left fielder Thomas Saggese. Kyle Stowers scores.2–3
6Ramón Urías strikes out swinging.2–2
5Agustín Ramírez homers (2) on a line drive to center field.1–2
4Xavier Edwards hits a ground-rule double (5) on a fly ball to left-center field. Kyle Stowers scores.1–1
4Masyn Winn out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Jordan Walker scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
