Phillies at Marlins
Last play · Xavier Edwards lines out to center fielder Justin Crawford.
Win probability
Marlins0%
PHI 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 1 MIA
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryson Stott homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Marsh scores. Edmundo Sosa scores. (inning 7) — -16% Phillies
9Otto Lopez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Javier Sanoja scores.6–5
8Agustín Ramírez singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Otto Lopez scores.6–4
8Liam Hicks out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Adolis García. Kyle Stowers scores.6–3
8Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to second baseman Bryson Stott. Jakob Marsee scores. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.6–2
7Bryson Stott homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Marsh scores. Edmundo Sosa scores.6–1
7Edmundo Sosa singles on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Bryce Harper scores. Brandon Marsh to 3rd.3–1
4Justin Crawford doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Bryson Stott scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd.2–1
4Alec Bohm singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Brandon Marsh scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
