Phillies at Marlins
Last play · Trea Turner flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Marlins100%
PHI 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 3 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Connor Norby walks. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards to 3rd. Agustín Ramírez to 2nd. (inning 3) — +12% Marlins
6Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to shortstop Trea Turner. Esteury Ruiz scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd.0–4
5Xavier Edwards homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.0–3
3Connor Norby walks. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards to 3rd. Agustín Ramírez to 2nd.0–2
3Agustín Ramírez walks. Kyle Stowers scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. Xavier Edwards to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
