Phillies at Marlins
PHI7–
MIA2Last play · Marlins challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Esteury Ruiz grounds out, shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Marlins0%
PHI 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 7 – 0 MIA
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryson Stott homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh scores. (inning 1) — -14% Phillies
7Esteury Ruiz homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Leo Jiménez scores.7–2
3Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Stowers. J.T. Realmuto scores. Felix Reyes to 3rd.7–0
1Bryson Stott homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh scores.6–0
1J.T. Realmuto out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. Bryce Harper scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd.3–0
1Brandon Marsh walks. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd. Alec Bohm to 2nd.2–0
1Alec Bohm reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Otto Lopez. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd. Bryce Harper to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.