Phillies at Marlins
Last play · Liam Hicks grounds out, second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Marlins0%
PHI 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 0 MIA
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryson Stott flies out to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. (inning 9) — -14% Phillies
3Bryce Harper homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
