Orioles at Marlins
BAL9–
MIA7Last play · Jakob Marsee strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins0%
BAL 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 7 – 4 MIA
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adley Rutschman singles on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd. (inning 9) — -34% Orioles
9Leody Taveras singles on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Pete Alonso scores. Adley Rutschman to 2nd.9–7
9Adley Rutschman singles on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd.8–7
8Marlins challenged (force play), call on the field was overturned: Graham Pauley flies out to right fielder Colton Cowser.7–7
7Otto Lopez homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.7–6
7Liam Hicks homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.7–5
5Colton Cowser reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Otto Lopez. Samuel Basallo scores.7–4
5Samuel Basallo triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Owen Caissie. Pete Alonso scores.6–4
3Joe Mack singles on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Kyle Stowers scores. Connor Norby to 2nd.5–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.