Nationals at Marlins
Last play · Leo Jiménez grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Nasim Nuñez. Heriberto Hernández out at 2nd.
Win probability
Marlins0%
WSH 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 3 – 2 MIA
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jacob Young homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. CJ Abrams scores. (inning 1) — -16% Nationals
1Kyle Stowers reaches on a throwing error by first baseman Curtis Mead. Otto Lopez scores. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.3–2
1Xavier Edwards homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
1Jacob Young homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. CJ Abrams scores.3–0
1CJ Abrams singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. Curtis Mead scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
