Nationals at Marlins
Last play · CJ Abrams flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Marlins100%
WSH 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 4 – 2 MIA
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jakob Marsee homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Kyle Stowers scores. Connor Norby scores. (inning 8) — +37% Marlins
9Luis García Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Drew Millas scores. James Wood scores. Luis García Jr. to 2nd.7–8
9Drew Millas singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. José Tena scores.5–8
8Leo Jiménez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Esteury Ruiz scores.4–8
8Jakob Marsee homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Kyle Stowers scores. Connor Norby scores.4–7
7Xavier Edwards homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.4–4
6Owen Caissie out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Connor Norby scores.4–3
4Kyle Stowers homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Otto Lopez scores.4–2
3Daylen Lile out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jakob Marsee. CJ Abrams scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
