Nationals at Marlins
WSH2–
MIA5Last play · Curtis Mead lines out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Marlins100%
WSH 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 2 MIA
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christopher Morel singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Esteury Ruiz scores. (inning 8) — +29% Marlins
8Heriberto Hernández singles on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Jakob Marsee scores. Christopher Morel scores.2–5
8Christopher Morel singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Esteury Ruiz scores.2–3
5Luis García Jr. doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Jorbit Vivas scores. James Wood to 3rd.2–2
4Brady House grounds out, shortstop Otto Lopez to first baseman Liam Hicks. Luis García Jr. scores.1–2
3Otto Lopez reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Nasim Nuñez. Xavier Edwards scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd. Fielding error by shortstop Nasim Nuñez.0–2
3Liam Hicks singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Joe Mack scores. Xavier Edwards to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.