Mets at Marlins
Last play · Heriberto Hernández hits a grand slam (2) to center field. Esteury Ruiz scores. Liam Hicks scores. Xavier Edwards scores.
Win probability
Marlins100%
NYM 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 0 MIA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Heriberto Hernández hits a grand slam (2) to center field. Esteury Ruiz scores. Liam Hicks scores. Xavier Edwards scores. (inning 9) — +36% Marlins
9Heriberto Hernández hits a grand slam (2) to center field. Esteury Ruiz scores. Liam Hicks scores. Xavier Edwards scores.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
