Rays at Marlins
Last play · Kyle Stowers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins0%
TB 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 0 MIA
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Richie Palacios triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee, deflected by right fielder Owen Caissie. Junior Caminero scores. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 1) — -21% Rays
7Ryan Vilade singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Junior Caminero scores. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.6–0
6Cedric Mullins homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.5–0
5Jonathan Aranda singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Junior Caminero scores.4–0
1Ryan Vilade singles on a ground ball to right fielder Owen Caissie. Richie Palacios scores.3–0
1Richie Palacios triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee, deflected by right fielder Owen Caissie. Junior Caminero scores. Yandy Díaz scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
