D-backs at Marlins
Last play · Tommy Troy lines out to right fielder Esteury Ruiz.
Win probability
Marlins100%
AZ 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 3 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Joe Mack scores. Connor Norby to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Marlins
8Esteury Ruiz doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Tommy Troy. Xavier Edwards scores. Javier Sanoja to 3rd.6–10
8Javier Sanoja singles on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Connor Norby scores. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards to 3rd.6–9
8Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Joe Mack scores. Connor Norby to 2nd.6–7
8Corbin Carroll grounds out to first baseman Connor Norby. Tommy Troy scores. Ketel Marte to 2nd.6–6
8Ketel Marte singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Tommy Troy to 3rd.5–6
7Ketel Marte doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Tommy Troy scores.3–6
6Kyle Stowers doubles (11) on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Liam Hicks scores. Otto Lopez scores.2–6
6Liam Hicks doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Tommy Troy. Joe Mack scores. Connor Norby to 3rd.2–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
