Rays at Marlins
Last play · Cedric Mullins called out on strikes.
Win probability
Marlins100%
TB 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 0 MIA
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-109 / -111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Stowers out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ryan Vilade. Otto Lopez scores. (inning 6) — +19% Marlins
7Joe Mack reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Taylor Walls. Esteury Ruiz scores. Jakob Marsee scores. Fielding error by catcher Hunter Feduccia.1–4
6Kyle Stowers out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ryan Vilade. Otto Lopez scores.1–2
6Otto Lopez triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Liam Hicks scores.1–1
3Yandy Díaz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Taylor Walls scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
