D-backs at Marlins
Last play · Ketel Marte grounds out, third baseman Javier Sanoja to first baseman Christopher Morel.
Win probability
Marlins100%
AZ 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 8 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Owen Caissie homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Heriberto Hernández scores. (inning 4) — +17% Marlins
5Owen Caissie out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Heriberto Hernández scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd.0–8
4Kyle Stowers homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Liam Hicks scores. Otto Lopez scores.0–7
4Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Javier Sanoja scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd. Otto Lopez to 2nd.0–4
4Owen Caissie homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Heriberto Hernández scores.0–3
3Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Liam Hicks scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
