D-backs at Marlins
Last play · LuJames Groover strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Marlins100%
AZ 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+112 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jakob Marsee singles on a line drive to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. Kyle Stowers scores. Owen Caissie to 3rd. (inning 4) — +9% Marlins
4Jakob Marsee singles on a line drive to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. Kyle Stowers scores. Owen Caissie to 3rd.0–2
1Xavier Edwards out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Otto Lopez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
