Giants at Marlins
Last play · Matt Chapman challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Matt Chapman called out on strikes.
Win probability
Marlins100%
SF 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 6 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jakob Marsee singles on a line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Esteury Ruiz scores. (inning 4) — +13% Marlins
8Casey Schmitt doubles (15) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Jung Hoo Lee scores.3–6
4Heriberto Hernández homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Otto Lopez scores.2–6
4Xavier Edwards grounds into a double play, shortstop Willy Adames to second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Rafael Devers. Jakob Marsee scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. Kyle Stowers out at 2nd. Xavier Edwards out at 1st.2–4
4Jakob Marsee singles on a line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Esteury Ruiz scores.2–3
4Casey Schmitt homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.2–2
2Xavier Edwards reaches on a missed catch error by pitcher Trevor McDonald, assist to first baseman Rafael Devers. Joe Mack scores. Esteury Ruiz to 3rd. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.1–2
2Drew Gilbert singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Casey Schmitt to 3rd.1–1
1Owen Caissie walks. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards to 3rd. Heriberto Hernández to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
