Giants at Marlins
Last play · Luis Arraez flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Marlins100%
SF 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 1 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Devers homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 6) — -23% Giants
7Owen Caissie out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Casey Schmitt. Javier Sanoja scores.3–4
7Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Esteury Ruiz scores. Javier Sanoja to 3rd. Liam Hicks to 2nd.3–3
6Casey Schmitt singles on a fly ball to right fielder Owen Caissie. Jung Hoo Lee scores.3–2
6Rafael Devers homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
5Owen Caissie doubles (11) on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Javier Sanoja scores.1–2
2Daniel Susac out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Willy Adames scores.1–1
1Owen Caissie homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
