Rangers at Marlins
Last play · Javier Sanoja grounds out, shortstop Ezequiel Duran to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Marlins0%
TEX 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 1 MIA
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alejandro Osuna doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Javier Sanoja. Brandon Nimmo scores. Jake Burger to 3rd. (inning 8) — -26% Rangers
8Kyle Stowers doubles (13) on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Joe Mack scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd.4–3
8Elias Díaz out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Javier Sanoja. Jake Burger scores. Alejandro Osuna to 3rd.4–2
8Alejandro Osuna doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Javier Sanoja. Brandon Nimmo scores. Jake Burger to 3rd.3–2
6Xavier Edwards triples (5) on a ground ball to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards out at home on the throw, left fielder Alejandro Osuna to shortstop Ezequiel Duran to catcher Elias Díaz.2–2
5Javier Sanoja out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Wyatt Langford. Owen Caissie scores.2–1
4Ezequiel Duran homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Brandon Nimmo scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
