Rangers at Marlins
TEX4–
MIA6Last play · Josh Jung flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Marlins100%
TEX 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 6 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Owen Caissie homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards scores. (inning 5) — +20% Marlins
9Brandon Nimmo triples (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Wyatt Langford scores.4–6
9Joc Pederson homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.3–6
8Brandon Nimmo homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.2–6
5Joe Mack singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarred Kelenic. Heriberto Hernández scores.1–6
5Owen Caissie homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards scores.1–5
4Joe Mack homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
2Heriberto Hernández homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
2Nicky Lopez grounds out to first baseman Connor Norby. Alejandro Osuna scores. Jarred Kelenic to 3rd. Kyle Higashioka to 2nd. Nicky Lopez out at 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.