Mariners at Marlins
Last play · Cole Young called out on strikes.
Win probability
Marlins100%
SEA 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Stowers homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — +15% Marlins
3Xavier Edwards triples (6) on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Otto Lopez scores.0–2
2Kyle Stowers homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
