Mariners at Marlins
Last play · Jakob Marsee singles on a fly ball to right fielder Miles Mastrobuoni. Xavier Edwards scores. Esteury Ruiz to 2nd.
Win probability
Marlins100%
SEA 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Heriberto Hernández homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — +35% Marlins
10Jakob Marsee singles on a fly ball to right fielder Miles Mastrobuoni. Xavier Edwards scores. Esteury Ruiz to 2nd.5–6
8Heriberto Hernández homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.5–5
8Victor Robles lines out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.5–4
8Josh Naylor singles on a ground ball to right fielder Owen Caissie. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh to 3rd. Josh Naylor to 2nd. Josh Naylor advances to 2nd, on an interference error by second baseman Xavier Edwards.4–4
8Cal Raleigh doubles (7) on a fly ball to right fielder Owen Caissie. J.P. Crawford scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd.3–4
5Cole Young homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.2–4
5Luke Raley out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Cal Raleigh scores.1–4
4Kyle Stowers out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Luke Raley. Liam Hicks scores.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
